Saturday, November 21, 2009

TF 11/20 (Fri)

TF 1min

Day 2.

Day 1 (Thurs) was NOT good. D took calls from his office, from his mum, and couldn't stop checking his blackberry, and his office laptop for emails. Extremely frustrating for me coz I like QUIET, FULL COMMITMENT & COOPERATION and UNDIVIDED ATTENTION.

Day 2 was better, albeit a tad comical. D was argumentative (D's always right...). We got our entries, but none of the targeted profits. D was extremely reluctant to stay in trade and would run with his few ticks each time. Drives me nuts.

Will keep doing this during US session.

Am still trading 6E during globex hours, but will slowly switch to Forex.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Jules Is A Mule (Part 3??!)

6E 15min
Yesterday was an interesting day - not just because I gave away 1k in a single trade again - so thought I'll talk about it.

I Shorted the 6E rather early in the morning (my morning and around 8pm NY time) coz, well, I was convinced 6E was going back down to test the spike low (see chart above). As with other days that I refused to think straight, I held on to the trade until I realized I couldn't be sure if price was going to stop going against me before the day ended. And as with all those other days that I was convinced that price would go to a certain place, price eventually did start going in my direction, or totally hit my target, either a few hours after my exit or 24 hours later.

All these days had been Wednesdays.

After I cut my loss, I had gone into my personal library to dig out some material I came across before, and to take a closer look at something that I never really took into account when I trade the futures: market participants (who they are - farmers/merchants/banks, speculators, hedge fund managers etc, and WHEN they operate).

My hypothesis about why the chart did what it did and why I kept hanging on to my biased view was confirmed when I traded the TF later in the evening (US morning of course) - when a wolfe pattern failed during lunch hour (learning very quickly from my 6E experience just hours before, I told D to refrain from buying a breakout - which is needed for price to get to wolfe target).

In any case, a hard stop would have saved me from myself. I had a lot of conviction, which was why I didn't want a stop to get in the way (what an irony). Extremely stupid, looking back. But then of course everything always appears obvious with the benefit of hindsight. It takes a hell lot of discipline and UNCOMMON SENSE to immediately recognize and stop a stupid act that's about to happen. I have neither discipline nor uncommon sense.

But I have an endless supply of energy. Maybe that's exactly what makes things worse. Instead of taking a hiatus after that 1k loss (6J took it!) from 2 weeks ago, I went right back to work after a 2-day break....

And after yesterday's 1k blunder, I went right back in to intervene in D's trading.

I had started off by telling D I would stop trading altogether for a while, and share with him about Wolfe Waves instead. After US market opened, D traded the account, taking his usual 1 to 3 ticks (since I said I wouldn't trade) before I spotted the wolfe pattern.

When I told him to go long at 595, he hesitated but went with it anyway. BUT he got out after 3 ticks instead of holding and moving his stops til we see the 3rd target (see chart below). When TF hit 600 in a parabolic move up, he blamed himself for not having persuaded me to take the trade myself.

As if things hadn't been bad enough up to that point, D had to sell at a place that I would buy, after TF pulled back from 600.

I hit the bid column on booktrader, covering his short.

D yelled "WHAT ARE YOU DOING??!!!" (I know, someone who has lost 1k just moments ago really shouldn't be meddling in the trade of another who has a record of zero to one losing day out of 20 on average) .

I was stunned, but only for seconds. Then I hit bid once more to get in on a long trade, at 3 ticks higher than where I had covered D's short (where I covered his short was exactly where I had wanted to go long - in other words, I had wanted to flip his trade - but D shocked me, and I was late hitting bid a second time as a result).

After I covered my long at +9 ticks, D thanked me for stopping his short at minimal damage, and for the rest of the day, we were in consultative mode (until I went in for my shower when D quietly took some "lunch time" trades).

It was fun - trading with D. And we might just do it again. I'm tempted to let D execute all the trades I identify. D doesn't lift stops - which means I can say goodbye to 2.5% drawdowns in a single trade forever.

On TWS - Red arrow shows where D entered on wolfe pattern, Blue arrow shows D's short that that I covered, Green arrow shows where I went long after covering D's short

TF 1min (my apologies for the blur - program was going to shut down, and I hadn't saved the chart, so needed to do a capture immediately - click to get a better view)


Wednesday, November 18, 2009

D's 3-Tick Rule (Update)

Target of 598.3, 599.5 and 600 hit!

D's crying. HAHAHAHA!!!

Chart above shows Wolfe pattern from yesterday (include price from the day before).

D's 3-Tick Rule

TF 1 min
Was teaching D to trade a Wolfe pattern that I learned from Todd. Told D to buy at 595 (blue arrow), and place a 3 tick stop. Target was anywhere along target line. I projected 598.3, 599.5 and 600.

D took 3 ticks and happily exited.

Sigh.

WASTED.

There was a wolfe pattern yesterday too. Will post later. But find your own first just for the fun of it.

For the record, D has only 1 losing day since beginning of the month. So, maybe his 3-tick rule isn't so bad after all. Ha ha.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Brief Update

Honestly, not missing my blog. But missing my friends a lot (MVW, stop waiting by the mailbox :-) I will be a recluse til Jan 2010. By then I will write to tell you what had happened). Still haven't gotten down to writing them. I have been studying mostly, and traded a little.

This is just a quick update. I haven't traded that much as mentioned, but the days I traded had been ok - not exactly gainful, but they were alright. It's a green 1k plus week.

Above shows Wed & Thurs' results. Tues was a breakeven day with some crappy 6B trades. Somehow I couldn't get Tues to show on the log. Still lost in IB land.

Not trading FX futures after Tues was something I decided on Monday. It was a week filled with econ data that had indeed made the charts of those I trade (namely, 6B & 6E) rather ugly during the time that I normally trade them.

I traded the TF and NQ instead. I hadn't sat and watch them all day and would start monitoring them only at around 4am ET.

Both the TF trades were 4R to 5R gains. So, DT, yes, it can be done.

Starting Monday, I'll be trading only the ES during US session. I will continue to trade mostly FX futures during globex hours.

After today, I will return to provide update only when the results get meaningful.

In an act of defiance, I have removed the charts that I had originally attached to this post. Charts were taken from my daily journal entry. It didn't quite surprise me that the journal that's for my eyes only looks like it's written by another person. I gather that when no one else's reading, I can write exactly what I think about the market and trading on a daily basis.